Economy Watch is a publication on the Irish economy from DKM Economic Consultants. It is the essential reference tool for business leaders and decision-makers in Ireland. DKM’s unique Snapshot of Economic Forecasts presents the results of a survey of economic forecasts from a range of key Irish and international sources in an easy-to-use format.
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Economy Watch Issue 19 was published on 5th May 2017.
Launching the latest issue of Economy Watch, DKM Chairman Brendan Dowling highlighted that while forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are positive, caution is understandable “with Brexit on the horizon, public pay pressure building up to unrealistic levels and a Government without the capacity to take difficult decisions”. However, he noted that the domestic economy continues to contribute strongly with “unemployment declining rapidly as construction investment continues to accelerate”.
Economy Watch issue 18 was published on November 3rd 2016.
Launching the latest issue of Economy Watch, DKM Chairman Brendan Dowling highlighted that “the general consensus among forecasters of the Irish economy for 2017 is for a significant slowdown in GDP growth” due to the uncertainties of the impact of Brexit on the Irish economy. However “it is vital that the Irish Government is not distracted by Brexit, which will be a long drawn out affair, to the detriment of other policy matters emanating from Brussels“.Download Report Download Press Release
Economy Watch Issue 17 was published this morning, Friday 26th February 2016.
Consensus forecasts indicate that GDP growth of 4.7% in 2016 and 3.9% in 2017 is expected.
Launching the latest issue, DKM Chairman Brendan Dowling highlighted that “there is no doubt that the economy is on a strong and sustainable growth path. If it is not knocked off course there is a good chance that employment levels will reach the pre-recession peak. However this time employment will not be overly dependent on unsustainable construction investment. Domestic demand growth is taking over from export growth as the main driver of increased incomes and employment. But none of this is a given. Major dislocations caused either by domestic political uncertainty or British exit from the EU could see a sharp reversal of the optimism which is driving consumption and investment.”Download Report Download Press Release
Economy Watch Issue 16 was published on Friday 9th October 2015.
Consensus forecasts suggest that GDP will expand by 5.6% in 2015 and by 4% in 2016. Strong increases in domestic demand (consumption, investment and government expenditure) are expected drive the growth rather than external demand which Ireland previously relied on for growth.
Launching the latest issue, DKM Chairman Brendan Dowling highlighted that as expected “the macroeconomic forecasts for 2015 and 2016 have been revised upwards”. However, with the ongoing economic turmoil in emerging markets and its effect on the world economy “most forecasts continue to see a sharp decline in growth in 2016”.Download Economy Watch Issue 16
Economy Watch Issue 15 was published on Wednesday 8th April 2015.
Consensus forecasts indicate that GDP growth of 3.9% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016 is expected.
Launching the latest issue, DKM Chairman Brendan Dowling highlighted that “economic forecasts remain on the cautious side” but that it would not be a surprise if “the official forecasts move upwards as Budget 2016 approaches thus permitting a degree of fiscal easing” in the lead up to the general election which is expected in early 2016.
Mr. Dowling also challenged the EU rules on debt- and deficit-to-GDP ratios, stating that they “make no sense” and that “if Ireland can borrow additional funds at long term interest rates of 2 per cent and refinance existing debt at similar rates this should allow more flexibility in the fiscal stance.”Download Economy Watch Issue 15
Economy Watch Issue 14 was published on Tuesday 25th November 2014.
Consensus forecasts indicate that GDP growth of 4.6% in 2014 and 3.4% in 2015 is expected.
Launching the latest issue, DKM Chairman Brendan Dowling highlighted that the income tax concessions and child benefit increases announced by the Government in Budget 2015 were “probably three times the level of water charges being proposed at that stage, yet this message was completely lost in the subsequent public debate”.
Mr. Dowling also questioned both the absence of a simple message on tax in the Budget, and the lack of reform of a currently distorted Irish tax system in which there is “a substantial proportion of the workforce paying little or no income taxes and another substantial proportion paying very high rates of direct taxes on incomes which are modest by European standards”.Download Economy Watch Issue 14
Economy Watch Issue 13 was published on Tuesday 29th April 2014.
Consensus forecasts indicate GDP growth of 2.2% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015 is expected.
Launching the latest issue, DKM Chairman Brendan Dowling cautioned that the patent cliff issues being experienced by pharmaceutical companies may not have much of an impact on the domestic economy but the main impact “will be on measured nominal GDP which unfortunately is the denominator of the key target set by Europe as a measure of fiscal probity”.
Mr. Dowling also highlights the large proportion of employment growth accounted for by self employed persons and suggests that it likely reflects “a rise in unemployed and prematurely retired white collar workers masked as a rise in self-employment”, rather than an increased entrepreneurial spirit.Download Economy Watch Issue 13
Economy Watch Issue 12 was published on 22nd November 2013.
Consensus forecasts indicate GDP growth of 0.4% in 2013 and 2.1% in 2014 is expected.
DKM Chairman, Brendan Dowling, highlighted that the trend in employment figures "suggests a greater growth momentum than that indicated by quarterly GDP numbers", and that if this momentum continues "the overall growth forecasts for 2014 may prove conservative"
Mr. Dowling cautioned that fiscal policy will remain subject to financial market discipline as long as there is a large national debt to roll over regularly and a continuing high annual borrowing requirement.Download Economy Watch Issue 12